In a recent study published in Energies, Near East University researchers have presented an important assessment of how photovoltaic energy systems can support the transformation of hospitals into more sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon infrastructure in Türkiye. The study, titled “Long-Term Climate Variability and Photovoltaic Energy Potential for Sustainable Hospital Infrastructure in Türkiye: A Multi-Method Assessment,” examines the long-term viability of solar energy systems in six major hospitals located in Adana, Başakşehir, Bursa, Elazığ, Gaziantep, and Yozgat.

The research was conducted by Dr. Youssef Kassem from the Department of Mechanical Engineering, the Department of Civil Engineering, the Energy, Environment, and Water Research Center, and BILTEM at Near East University; Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Gökçekuş from the Department of Civil Engineering and the Energy, Environment, and Water Research Center at Near East University; and Dündar Arif Ekinci from the General Directorate of Health Investments of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Türkiye. Using a comprehensive multi-method framework, the study combined long-term climate trend analysis, high-resolution spatial assessment of rooftop and parking-area suitability, photovoltaic electricity generation modeling, Response Surface Methodology (RSM), and techno-economic as well as environmental analyses.

The findings reveal that although all selected hospital locations show clear long-term warming trends, solar radiation remains generally stable, confirming the continued strength and reliability of Türkiye’s solar resource base. Across the six hospitals, the proposed photovoltaic systems were estimated to have installed capacities ranging from 6 MW to 47 MW, with capacity factors between 17.0% and 19.7%, demonstrating strong technical feasibility. Importantly, the economic analysis showed favorable payback periods of approximately 4.31 to 4.88 years, underscoring the practical and financial attractiveness of large-scale solar integration in healthcare facilities.

The study also highlights the environmental significance of hospital-based photovoltaic systems. Annual avoided carbon dioxide emissions were estimated to range from approximately 5.03 million to 33.58 million kg CO2-eq per year, with substantial net lifetime environmental benefits over the project life span. In addition, the RSM analysis showed that aerosol optical thickness is one of the most important negative drivers affecting photovoltaic performance, emphasizing the value of climate-sensitive planning for future solar infrastructure.

Overall, the study demonstrates that despite the pressures imposed by climate change—such as increasing temperatures and reduced wind cooling—Türkiye retains a strong and exploitable photovoltaic potential for hospital infrastructure. By integrating climate science, renewable energy engineering, and techno-economic analysis, this work provides a valuable roadmap for strengthening energy security and advancing sustainable healthcare systems. The study directly supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

For collaboration and inquiries, please contact Dr. Youssef Kassem at [email protected].

About the researchers

Dr. Youssef Kassem is a researcher at the Faculty of Engineering, Near East University, where he completed his B.Sc. (2009), M.Sc. (2011), and Ph.D. (2017) in Mechanical Engineering. His research focuses on renewable energy technologies, particularly solar, wind, and biofuel resources, as well as energy efficiency and sustainable energy systems. He has published in international peer-reviewed journals and serves as a reviewer for scientific publications.

Hüseyin Gökçekuş is a Professor of Civil Engineering at Near East University, where he serves as Head of the Department of Civil Engineering. He received his Ph.D. in Hydrogeology from Middle East Technical University in 1990. With more than 100 scientific publications, his research focuses on environmental sustainability, hydrogeology, water resources management, and environmental engineering. He has also held several senior academic and administrative positions, including Vice Rector of Near East University and President of YÖDAK.

Disciplines: Renewable Energy, Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Solar Photovoltaic Systems, Climate Change, Energy Efficiency, Sustainable Healthcare Infrastructure.

For collaboration and inquiries, please contact Dr. Youssef Kassem at [email protected].

Abstract

The main objective of the current study is to assess the techno-economic feasibility, climate change adaptability, and sustainability of photovoltaic energy systems in six large hospitals in Turkey (Adana, Başakşehir, Bursa, Elazig, Gaziantep, and Yozgat) to achieve United Nations recommendations as Sustainable Development Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy) and Sustainable Development Goal 13 (climate action). This study aims to determine the impact of long-term climate change on the availability of photovoltaic (PV) energy resources. To achieve this goal, this research was conducted through a multi-step approach combining (1) the detection of long-term climate trends using linear regression on the TerraClimate database, (2) the spatial analysis of photovoltaic solar energy potential using high-resolution satellite imagery (Google Maps) for roof suitability and parking areas, (3) the estimation of photovoltaic electricity generation and the calculation of the capacity factor, (4) the application of the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on NASA Giovanni data to model the nonlinear reciprocal relationships between precipitation (R), aerosol optical thickness (AOT), photovoltaic solar energy production, and (5) the techno-economic analysis using the Levelized energy cost (LCOE), payback period, and CO2 emission reductions. The results show statistically consistent warming trends across all sites with trends for Tmax ranging from +0.0205 to +0.0268 °C/year and for Tmin from +0.0208 to +0.0300 °C/year. The temperature of PV cells increases at a rate of +0.0197 °C/year and the wind speed decreases by −0.0031 to −0.0149 m/s/year, which indicates a reduction in convective cooling. Solar radiation, on the other hand, is relatively constant with small trends ranging from +0.0002 to +0.0566 W/m2/year, and confirms the consistent solar resource availability. Seasonal PV resource potential varies from ~70–95 W/m2 in winter to 290–310 W/m2 in summer. Furthermore, the installed PV capacities are between 6 MW (Yozgat) and 47 MW (Başakşehir) with capacity factors of 17.0–19.7% and payback periods of 4.31–4.88 years. RSM models have high explanatory power (R2 = 0.57–0.74) with AOT as the most important negative driver of PV performance. Consequently, the results show that while the solar resource of Türkiye is stable and highly exploitable, PV efficiency is increasingly determined by climate-induced thermal stress and reduced wind cooling. The study highlights the economic viability, environmental advantages, and strategic relevance of PV systems at hospitals for resilient, low-carbon healthcare infrastructure in future climate scenarios.

Keywords: Sustainable Development Goal; photovoltaic energy systems; climate trends; Turkey; techno-economic analysis; Response Surface Methodology